DALIO2.0
The new world order.
Artificial intelligence.
The capital that connects them.
From one big cycle
to five futures.
Dalio: the forces.
The Big Cycle links the rise and decline of powers to debt, innovation, productivity, inequality and conflict. In the 2021 book, US–China rivalry brings the historical lesson up to date. Succession remains a possibility, not a destiny.
Tetlock: the method.
Break the grand thesis into verifiable questions. Assign probabilities, record judgements before events occur and update them as the evidence changes. Look also for whatever could prove the forecast wrong.
Marcucci: the extension.
Separate power by domain; add multipolarity, AI and digital finance. Build five scenarios and connect them to Italy, investments and instruments. Keep a history of revisions in order to learn from mistakes.
Dalio’s forces, Tetlock’s discipline, a map of power that can change.
Open trends and quarterly revisions ↗The advantage
lies in the node.
Select a pole and observe its function within the system.
United States
Market depth and the innovation ecosystem sustain a persistent leadership in essential domains.
Constraint: converting capex and AI capacity into productivity, cohesion and fiscal sustainability.
powerMUTUAL DEPENDENCIES
Three geographies.
No winner across every domain.
AI capital is American.
AI venture capital to the US · 2025
Robotic scale is Chinese.
Robots installed in China · 2024
Reserves stay in dollars.
USD share of foreign-exchange reserves · 2025
Reading power by domain makes visible advantages that a single indicator of strength would conceal.
Digital finance
has three directions.
The currency, the asset and the platform can evolve in different ways.
A non-sovereign alternative.
The protocol allows BTC to be held and transferred without a state monetary issuer. The price also depends on adoption, access and liquidity.
Demand for an alternative asset can grow without replacing the unit of account of trade or dollar funding.
Scarcity does not guarantee stability. Bitcoin should be assessed separately from gold and from the progress of tokenisation.
VBTC is an example of access via ETN: 1.00% per year, ISIN DE000A28M8D0. Compare vehicles, custody and total cost.
Explore Bitcoin ↗A force that cuts across the five scenarios. The initial probabilities remain unchanged.
One technology.
Two possible trajectories.
The productivity dividend
- Complementary skills and processes
- More output and better margins
- Investment, wages and tax revenue
The pressure on cohesion
- Concentrated profits and labour transitions
- Poorly distributed incomes and opportunities
- Social tensions and political conflict
Electricity connects the models to the physical economy.
Grids, connections and operating capacity can become bottlenecks.
Five futures.
One discipline.
Select a scenario to connect macroeconomics, themes and risks.
Initial weights from the report: 100% in total.
Strategic judgements to be updated quarterly; not estimated frequencies.
More poles. Shared growth.
AI diffuses, the US retains leadership in some domains and trade reorganises without breaking apart.
Every exposure
has its anti-scenario.
Selected: S1 · Managed multipolarity
| Theme / asset class | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global equities | ++ | ++ | − | + | −− |
| US technology | + | ++ | − | 0 | −− |
| Semiconductors | + | ++ | − | ++ | −− |
| Industrial automation | ++ | + | 0 | ++ | − |
| Listed infrastructure | + | + | − | + | − |
| Electricity and grids | + | ++ | 0 | + | 0 |
| Defence and cyber | + | + | ++ | + | 0 |
| Energy and commodities | 0 | 0 | ++ | + | −− |
| Gold | 0 | 0 | ++ | + | + |
| Inflation-linked bonds | 0 | − | + | 0 | 0 |
| Long-dated quality sovereigns | 0 | − | −− | 0 | ++ |
| Emerging-market equities | + | 0 | − | ++ | −− |
| Cash in base currency | 0 | − | 0 | 0 | + |
| Bitcoin · off-scale ↗ | Adoption | Rates / access | Access / liquidity | Indirect link | Liquidity / confidence |
Qualitative sensitivities from the report, not expected returns. Bitcoin shows the factors to verify and remains outside the scores. Column S5A represents disinflation: in the fiscal sub-case S5B, long-dated sovereigns can lose their protective function.
Italy needs
diffusion.
The decisive step is from demo to factory: design, quality control, maintenance and logistics.
Firms with at least 10 employees in the sectors covered. Adoption is an input; results are measured in output, quality and income.
With nominal growth at 3%, the ratio falls by 7.6 points of GDP relative to 2026.
Simulation, not forecast: initial debt of 138.2% in 2026 (IMF projection); average cost 3.5%, primary surplus 1.5% of GDP and zero stock-flow adjustments, held constant. Nominal growth includes prices; it is not equivalent to AI productivity.
From thesis
to instrument.
Open a card: function, ISIN, cost and selection conditions.
S1 · Managed multipolarity. A global base, an electricity supply chain and an exposure to automation: check overlaps, prices and composition.
Own what
most futures require.
Energy, compute, grids, automation and security. With sustainable valuations and protections consistent with the shock.
Sources, scope and method ↗
Overview of the DALIO 2.0 report by Gianpaolo Marcucci. Data consulted on 12 September 2026, with periods indicated in the charts. Sources for the 16 instruments in their respective cards. Scenario weights and the matrix are the report's judgements; the simulator applies dₜ = [(1+i)/(1+g)] × dₜ₋₁ − p, with no endogenous reactions. The simulations do not causally estimate the effect of AI.